Director's Blog

A Future Without Key Social and Economic Statistics for the Country

Posted on May 11, 2012 by jennifer

Written by: Director Robert Groves

Our country faces important Federal funding challenges linked to the current recession and its aftermath. On the Census Bureau’s part, we have been striving to cut administrative costs, reengineer our survey processes, and find innovative ways to squeeze every cent of taxpayer money we get. This is an important duty, I believe, we have as public servants, and I am proud of the hard work of my Census Bureau colleagues on this score. It is also my duty to inform the country of the impact of budgets on the scope and quality of the nonpartisan statistical information the Census Bureau provides.

This blog post provides information about the implications of the recent budget passed by the House of Representatives.

The Appropriations Bill eliminates the Economic Census, which measures the health of our economy. It terminates the American Community Survey, which produces the social and demographic information that monitors the impact of economic trends on communities throughout the country. It halts crucial development of ways to save money on the next decennial census. In the last three years the Census Bureau has reacted to budget and technological challenges by mounting aggressive operational efficiency programs to make these key statistical cornerstones of the country more cost efficient. Eliminating them halts all the progress to build 21st century statistical tools through those innovations. This bill thus devastates the nation’s statistical information about the status of the economy and the larger society.

The Economic Census
The 2012 Economic Census provides comprehensive information on the health of over 25 million businesses and 1,100 industries. It provides detailed industry and geographic source data for generating quarterly GDP estimates. The economic census is also the benchmark for measures of productivity, producer prices, and many of the nation’s principal economic indicators. At this moment, we are poised to request the key data from individual firms. We have already printed 7.5 million forms, and are preparing the October mailing and internet data collection infrastructure. Cancelling the 2012 Economic Census now wastes $226 million already expended on preparatory activities

The American Community Survey
The ACS is our country’s only source of small area estimates on social and demographic characteristics. Manufacturers and service sector firms use ACS to identify the income, education, and occupational skills of local labor markets they serve. Retail businesses use ACS to understand the characteristics of the neighborhoods in which they locate their stores. Homebuilders and realtors understand the housing characteristics and the markets in their communities. Local communities use ACS to choose locations for new schools, hospitals, and fire stations. There is no substitute from the private sector for ACS small area estimates. Even if the funding problems were solved in the proposed budget, the House bill also bans enforcement of the mandatory nature of participation in the ACS; this alone would require at least $64 million more in funding to achieve the same precision of ACS estimates.

Building a More Efficient Population Census
In the last three years the Census Bureau has launched a transformation in survey and census designs. Both the ongoing economic and demographic surveys and the economic and demographic censuses will use the same technological infrastructure, to produce a leaner, more efficient 21st Century Census Bureau. The reduction in the 2020 Census request will not permit the Census Bureau to undertake the research and testing needed to build shared use of technical infrastructure and more efficient ways of conducting the next decennial census. It eliminates the anonymized public use sample file (PUMS), robbing the country of research discoveries from the 2010 Census by the private sector. The country will lose the chance to mount a 2020 Census at a lower cost per household than that of the 2010 Census.

Modern societies need current, detailed social and economic statistics; the US is losing them.

Posted in About the Agency, Measuring America, Uncategorized | Tagged American Community Survey, Economic Census, population | 100 Comments

How Good was the 2010 Census?, Part 3

Posted on May 10, 2012 by jennifer

Written by: Director Robert Groves

As prior blogs have noted, there are 3 ways to evaluate the quality of a census: 1) process indicators that describe the operations, 2) comparisons with other estimates of population size, and 3) a sample survey matched to the census, often called a “post-enumeration survey.” The first two sets of evaluations suggest that the 2010 Census was a good one. On Tuesday, May 22, we’ll report the results of the statistical estimates of coverage of the 2010 Census based on our post-enumeration survey, labeled “Census Coverage Measurement” or CCM.

For the first time, we will also break the estimates into components of coverage. These include correct and erroneous enumerations in the census, tallies of the number of people for whom all characteristics were imputed (inserted statistically), and estimates of how many people were missed in the census.

We will provide the estimates for the nation; major demographic groups, such as by race, by age and sex categories, and for owners and renters; by important census operations (mailout/mailback, update/leave, and interviewing in person); and for the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and large counties and places.

These results will help us as we plan and conduct research to improve the 2020 Census. On the other hand, results from the CCM have limitations. The estimates have sampling error and a vulnerability to violations of the underlying assumptions.

Net Coverage Error and Components of Coverage

The net coverage error of a census is defined as the difference between the true population size and the census count. Although the net coverage error provides valuable information about the census count, it is a single number that summarizes the results of various census operations and actual events. For example, the estimated net coverage error for the 2000 Census was very small (we estimated a net overcount of 0.49%, with a standard error of 0.20%). However, evaluations showed that a large number of erroneous enumerations offset a large number of omissions.

To address this, in addition to measuring net coverage error, the CCM program estimated separately the components of census coverage. First, we divided the number of census records into estimates of its three components—correct enumerations, erroneous enumerations, and misses filled-in by whole-person imputations (people for whom all characteristics were imputed). “Erroneous enumerations” are census records that should not have been included, such as duplicates, fictitious people, people who died before Census Day (April 1, 2010), or were born after Census Day. Second, we split the estimated population into those people deemed to be correct enumerations and those who were missed in the census.

Estimating the number of omissions (those missed in the census) is complicated by practical and conceptual issues. As the missing component of the true population size, omissions cannot be collected and analyzed directly, but can be estimated by deduction through dual system estimation. As with correct and erroneous enumerations, defining what should qualify as an omission is difficult. For example, for some housing units captured in the census, the records of the entire household are whole-person imputations, that is, treated as missing data and filled in statistically from another housing unit. Should such records be considered as omissions from the census? Valid arguments on each side of the issue render it a difficult one, with no solution that satisfies every intended use of the data. We will present estimates in as transparent way as possible to facilitate such arguments.

The coverage estimates from the post-enumeration survey should be used to build a better 2020 Census. By examining what operations or procedures suffered the most erroneous enumerations or omissions, we can construct targeting features in 2020. By knowing how different successive coverage improvement operations affect the estimated coverage, we can make better cost-quality tradeoff decisions for 2020.

Posted in 2010 Census, Quality Assurance, Uncategorized | 1 Comment

Looking Forward, Looking Back

Posted on April 10, 2012 by jennifer

Written by: Director Robert Groves

I have had the honor of directing the Census Bureau since July of 2009. As was reported today, I was offered the provost position at Georgetown University and have accepted it, with a start date of late August, 2012.

Many things have happened since July 2009. The wonderful 2010 Census team defied all the naysayers to complete a successful census on time and $1.9 billion under budget. We reorganized the Bureau, re-establishing a research directorate and then, in partnership with NSF, launched an 8-node research network at universities across the country. We put in place a risk management group to help us oversee large investments. The demographic programs’ and field directorates worked with the sponsors of surveys conducted by the Census Bureau to identify key improvements we could make. They’re reducing the number of Bureau regional offices from 12 to 6; they’re improving the supervisory structure of field interviewers; they’re mounting a more efficient matrix organization for survey management teams. The economic directorate is doing a top-to-bottom priority-setting effort, enhancing generalized processing systems. All the directorates have cooperated in launching a generalized system for the collection, processing, editing, and estimation of survey, internet, and administrative data. This will achieve a new level of efficiency, linking together the semi-autonomous directorates with shared tools.

On the administrative front, the HR group has launched a corporate hiring process, which moves new hires across the Bureau, building their cross-directorate skills; just recently, they announced a current-staff rotation plan, which has similar goals. We’re in the middle of a large retirement incentive program, with hundreds of folks taking advantage of the offer.

The new IT leadership has significantly reduced our IT operations costs by consolidation and integration. They’ve launched an internal social media tool that will improve internal communication/collaboration; they’ve built a private cloud to increase computing efficiency; they’re addressing the mix of research and production computing needs; they’ve built a Center for Applied Technology, which is a safe environment to try out high-risk, high-payoff ideas.

We all read in the papers each day some commentary on how Federal employees are unmotivated, unproductive, and wasteful. I’ve met many who defy that stereotype. They do, however, need leaders who listen to their ideas, leaders who will support them when they trip attempting stretch goals, leaders who believe that government agencies can be as efficient as any other organization.

The current staff at the Census Bureau knows five things: 1) costs of traditional data collection methods are increasing because of changes in US society, 2) the demand for more statistical information is growing, 3) there are new technologies that can help our business, 4) the Federal government can further reduce burden on the public by using data from existing records, and 5) we will not have more money to do our work. Hence, everything the Census Bureau staff is doing focuses on creating more efficient processes to free up resources to invest in new and better statistics.

This is hard work. It takes complete commitment to ongoing innovation. It’s not flashy. Indeed, public service is rarely sexy. It is, however, noble. I’ve learned that in a deep way since July 2009 from the behavior of my colleagues at the Census Bureau.

Posted in About the Agency | 3 Comments

Genealogists, Start Your Engines!

Posted on March 27, 2012 by jennifer

Written by: Director Robert Groves

By right of a 1957 ruling, the United States releases individual census reports to the public 72 years after the Census is completed. This means that each year that ends in “2” sees a new Census data set released. On April 2, 2012, we will release the 1940 U.S. Census of Population and Housing. It is an odd event for an organization devoted to keeping every data record we collect confidential, in fulfillment of our strong laws protecting those data.

The 1940 Census data are of key interest to genealogists around the world, as they use them to make more discoveries about their family tree. Over the past decade, there have been enormous advances that help genealogists pursue their passions of tracking down their family histories. Census forms around the world have been digitized and indexed, so that it is common now to enter into web site the name of your ancestor and a few bits of other biographical details and within a few clicks see the digitized image of the census form that captured a description of an ancestral family unit.

Of course, there’s an interesting contrast between mounting a modern census in the U.S. and serving the genealogy community. In the 2010 Census, we attempted to reduce the burden of responding to the census to a bare minimum required by law. We touted the motto “ten questions, ten minutes” to promote participation of a busy America. When genealogists look at a Census form, they want to know as many things about their ancestor as possible. They like the Censuses with many questions, not those with few!

The 1940 Census is a unique Census in our history – the first to include questions that were asked only of a subset of the population, chosen through a near-random scheme. Information on persons enumerated was entered on a large sheet containing 40 lines. Two of the lines were designated to receive “supplementary questions,” about parental place of birth, language spoken in the childhood home, veteran’s status, enrollment in Social Security, usual occupation and industry of employment, and for currently or formerly married women, whether they were married more than once, age at first marriage, and number of live births. There were 15 supplementary questions, not counting a rewriting of the person’s name.

In addition to the questions on age, sex, race, and relationship to the householder were questions about the value of the home, living on a farm, marital status, attending school, highest grade of school completed, place of birth, and citizenship. For persons 14 years and older, there were additionally seven different questions on working status, current occupation and industry, number of weeks worked, and income. There were 34 separately numbered questions before any supplementary questions were asked.

In addition, simultaneous with the 1940 population census, there was the first housing census, with 31 questions on the nature of the structures. (Unfortunately, these forms were destroyed and are not part of our release on April 2.)

All told, the 1940 Census asked a lot more than the “ten questions” of the 2010 form! We’ve reduced the total burden on the population from the Census, using modern sampling techniques. Now, only about 2 or 3 percent of the households each year are asked to respond to the American Community Survey, which has housing and detailed population attributes. Instead of every-ten-year estimates, we have annual estimates.

Some things stay the same. On the form were the words, “Your report is required by Act of Congress. This Act makes it unlawful for the Bureau to disclose any facts, including names or identity, from your census reports. Only sworn census employees will see your statements. Data collected will be used solely for preparing statistical information concerning the Nation’s population, resources, and business activities. Your Census Reports Cannot be Used for Purposes of Taxation, Regulation, or Investigation.” Issues of confidentiality and limitation to statistical uses only were part of the 1940 census as well as the current one. However, in March of 1942, the War Powers Act reversed this, directing the Census Bureau to release individual data in support of the war effort until the law lapsed in 1947. That episode is a reminder to us to be vigilant about preserving laws that protect the confidentiality of data collected for statistical purposes, one of the bedrock principles of statistical practice in a democracy.

As the genealogist of my family I can’t wait to look up my grandparents, aunts, and uncles, as well as my parents’ forms. The forms won’t be indexed by name immediately, so we’ll have to link addresses of our ancestors to enumeration districts and then browse the enumeration district looking for our relatives. Right now, my tracking of the Groves’ family goes back to 1670 on the Isle of Wight, off the coast of England, but it ends in 1930. The 1940 Census allows me to see records of people I remember meeting in my youth.

To my fellow genealogists, I wish you happy hunting!

Posted in Measuring America | 1 Comment

How America Knows How It’s Doing

Posted on March 5, 2012 by jennifer

Written by: Director Robert Groves

Every modern nation state, every developed society runs on data. Over the decades, business has demonstrated that those firms actively measuring their production processes, supply chains, and distribution networks become more successful. Local, state, and central governments have proven that when government services are tracked by process data and outcomes are quantified, taxpayer money is expended more effectively, and the public is better served.

The Census Bureau plays an important role in providing businesses and governments with the statistics they need to make informed decisions. The Census Bureau key economic indicators are timely, well-documented barometers of the current performance of the U.S. economy. The American Community Survey provides businesses and local governments much-needed detailed statistical information on consumers in localities around the country.

The American Community Survey is relatively new. Indeed, it produced its full complement of statistical information for the first time in fall of 2011. Because it is new, the Census Bureau technical staff was able to take advantage of all the statistical design and methodological innovations that have occurred in survey research over the past years. It’s our cutting edge demographic survey on several dimensions – it offers optional modes of data collection (mail questionnaires, telephone interviews, face-to-face interviews), each of which appeals to different segments of our diverse society. Its sample design permits the statistical description of very small areas; it pools data to produce 1 year, 3 year, and 5 year statistics for different levels of geography. Each year it produces over 11 billion statistics describing housing, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, all with web-based dissemination instantly available to the entire world. Starting January 2013, ACS will offer an internet option to respond, a new mode that our research has shown appeals to large proportions of respondents.

As the successor to the now-dropped “long form” of the decennial census, it is the sole source of accurate small area statistical information for the entire country. Because it replaced the long form, participation in the ACS is mandatory by law, just as the decennial census has been since 1790. The same logic that the once-in-a-decade long form statistics were important enough to mandate participation applies to the ACS.

Some have argued that it is inappropriate to require Americans to respond to the ACS. I understand that position, and I empathize with respondents who are asked to take a few minutes out of their busy day to perform this civic act. Similar questions arise about why we are legally required to fill out birth and death certificates, register for the Selective Service, take tests for drivers’ licenses, refrain from smoking in airplanes, etc.

These kinds of laws impose some constraints on the public. Each of them, however, seeks to attain some common good. Every society chooses what common good acts are mandated by law and which remain subject to norms or encouragement.

In all such domains, a tradeoff decision must be made – does the common good achieved by the mandated behavior justify the burden on the public?

Each year the Census Bureau asks a different 2.5% of the U.S. households to spend on average 40 minutes to complete the ACS. Based on the ACS statistics, businesses, local governments and the Federal government direct billions of dollars to decisions that help the country’s progress.

Contemplating a voluntary ACS demands attention to some research completed last decade – a test of a voluntary ACS compared to a mandatory ACS. Because some households never open the ACS mail questionnaire envelope, they do not return a completed form. If so, the Census Bureau then telephones and/or visits their home to seek the information, spending much more taxpayer money than the postage.

With the mandatory version of the ACS, a message on the envelope stating that completion is required by law was found to encourage households to open the envelope, take the request seriously, and complete the form. Without that attention-grabbing message, much more followup by telephone or personal visit was required, costing much more money than the mandatory form required. If the budget remained the same and ACS became voluntary, fewer sample households would be measured, statistics for small areas would become more unstable, and the key goal of the ACS to serve all communities across the U.S. could not be fulfilled.

Posted in Measuring America | Tagged American Community Survey | 1 Comment